With the political world already glancing toward the next presidential election, a newly released survey from the Saint Anselm College Survey Center suggests that the early shape of the 2028 Republican primary might not be much of a mystery at all. If the New Hampshire primary were held today, the poll shows Vice President JD Vance not simply leading the pack—but towering over it.

The numbers reveal a commanding advantage for Vance, the former Ohio senator who rose to national prominence as Donald Trump’s running mate and has since spent nearly four years as a central figure in the administration. According to the survey, he sits at 57% support among likely Republican voters, a level of early backing rarely seen in open primary cycles.

His closest competitors register far behind, underscoring the remarkable degree of consolidation already occurring within the GOP electorate. And for long-time party figures hoping for a return to the pre-Trump brand of Republican politics, the results offer a blunt reality check: the party’s voters appear firmly committed to the populist, nationalist direction entrenched over the last decade.

A Poll With Significant Reach

The survey—conducted November 18–19, 2025—includes responses from 2,112 registered New Hampshire voters, drawn randomly from a pool designed to reflect the demographic and partisan distribution of the state’s electorate. With a margin of error of just ±2.1%, its findings are statistically robust and offer one of the clearest early snapshots yet of what voters may be thinking heading into a new political cycle.

Though presidential primaries remain more than two years away, New Hampshire traditionally plays a unique role in shaping national momentum. Its voters are more politically engaged than most and often serve as early adopters of trends that spread across the national electorate.

In that sense, Vance’s wide lead does not merely reflect name recognition—it suggests a structural advantage that could influence the broader 2028 Republican field long before voters in other states cast their ballots.

Vance’s Rise: From Political Outsider to Dominant Contender

JD Vance’s position at the top of the poll is not entirely surprising. Since entering the Senate in 2023, Vance has steadily built a profile centered on economic populism, skepticism of U.S. intervention abroad, and strong support for border enforcement and domestic manufacturing. As vice president, he has been closely associated with the administration’s most signature policy initiatives, giving him a platform few potential competitors can match.

Historically, vice presidents testing the waters for a presidential run often begin as frontrunners—but rarely with such a lopsided advantage this early. His numbers reflect a deep enthusiasm among Republican voters, many of whom see him as the natural continuation of the political movement that reshaped the party beginning in 2016.

Beyond name recognition, Vance has also spent considerable time in New Hampshire over the course of the last two years, visiting small towns, meeting with local business owners, and building the kind of retail political presence that New Hampshire voters often reward.

The Rest of the Field: A Wide Gap to Close

While Vance commands a clear lead, the survey also measured early interest in other possible Republican candidates. Though the poll’s summary highlights Vance’s dominance, it notes that several figures are testing the waters—some well-known nationally, others more familiar among traditional conservatives.

While the report does not detail every competitor’s percentage in the same depth, the implication is unmistakable: no other candidate is currently within striking distance.

This mirrors broader national trends showing that the Republican base remains consolidated around leaders aligned with the populist wing of the party. Attempts by more establishment-leaning Republicans to shift the platform back toward the pre-2016 model have not resonated widely, and the New Hampshire poll reinforces that reality.

Democratic Primary Outlook: Familiar Faces Still on Top

On the Democratic side, the same survey found that Pete Buttigieg and Gavin Newsom continue to lead the early field. Their positioning suggests Democratic voters may also be looking to familiar names, especially those who have maintained high national visibility over the past several years.

Though the Democratic and Republican primaries are unfolding within different political environments, both parties show signs of coalescing around recognizable figures rather than embracing a major shake-up.

Why This Poll Matters So Early

Even though the 2028 cycle is still distant, political strategists closely watch early New Hampshire polling for several reasons:

1. New Hampshire is often a trendsetter.
   A commanding lead there can translate into national momentum, as seen in past cycles with candidates who either vaulted forward (like John McCain in 2000 and 2008) or collapsed spectacularly.
2. Early polls influence donor behavior.
   Candidates polling in single digits may struggle to attract the financial support needed to remain viable in a long primary.
3. Media coverage amplifies frontrunners.
   Polls like this can create a reinforcing loop: high poll numbers bring more coverage, which brings even higher poll numbers.
4. Party identity is shifting.
   This poll further confirms that Republican voters remain aligned with the populist, America-First platform that has defined the last decade of GOP politics.

The Message to the “Old Guard” Republicans

For Republicans hoping the party would drift back toward the George W. Bush–era brand of conservatism—emphasizing foreign intervention, business-friendly trade policies, and a less confrontational political style—the poll numbers are sobering.

The report describes this group as “pining for a return” to a previous chapter of Republican identity. Yet if this survey is any reflection of the national mood, that hope appears increasingly remote. Vance’s 57% support is not a minor lead; it is dominant, reflecting the continued popularity of the populist agenda within the party’s base.

If the goal is to redirect the party, the “old guard” faces a difficult road. Not only is Vance aligned with the current direction of the GOP, but he is also emerging as its most popular standard-bearer for the next generation.

Looking Ahead: What This Means for 2028

Polls are snapshots in time, not predictions. Many election cycles have seen early frontrunners stumble while underdogs surge months before the first votes are cast.

But the scale of Vance’s advantage matters. Even at this early stage, the Republican electorate appears to be signaling that they prefer continuity rather than change.

The survey’s core question captures this clearly:

“Looking ahead to the next presidential election in 2028, if the New Hampshire Presidential Primary were held today, for whom would you vote?”

And for now, the answer from Republican voters is overwhelming: JD Vance.

Whether that momentum holds will depend on national events, policy debates, and the ability of other Republicans to articulate a compelling alternative. But for the moment, the trajectory is unmistakable. The GOP’s emerging standard-bearer is not only defined by the movement of the past decade—he appears poised to lead it into its next chapter.