Poll Finds Many New Yorkers Considering Exit if Progressive Candidate Wins Mayoral Race

A new survey suggests growing unease among New Yorkers as the mayoral race enters its final days. According to the poll, more than one in four residents say they would consider leaving the city if progressive state Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani becomes the next mayor.

The poll, conducted by Victory Insights, captures a deepening divide in the nation’s largest city — one that could shape both its political and economic future.

Concerns Over Mamdani’s Agenda

When asked if they would contemplate moving out of New York City under Mamdani’s leadership, 26.5% of respondents said yes. About 68% said they would stay regardless of the result, while 5% remained uncertain.

Mamdani, 34, a Democratic socialist from Queens, has built his campaign around an aggressive progressive agenda: rent stabilization, universal public transit, and higher taxes on wealthy residents. His supporters see him as a transformative figure capable of reimagining the city’s future. His detractors call him a radical whose economic plans could further strain an already fragile recovery from pandemic-era losses.

According to Victory Insights, 39% of respondents believe Mamdani represents “a threat to the future of the city” — a concern voiced not only by Republicans but also by nearly one-third of Democratic voters.

A City Divided and Disillusioned

The same survey revealed that Mamdani’s approval rating stands at 2.99 out of 5 — slightly below average but higher than former Governor Andrew Cuomo (2.40) and Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa (2.72).

Analysts say the numbers reflect a city growing restless with its current trajectory. Rising rents, persistent crime fears, and declining trust in local leadership have left many New Yorkers yearning for change — even if they disagree on what that change should look like.

“New York City is standing at a crossroads,” the Victory Insights report stated. “Voters appear open to bold ideas but remain deeply skeptical of untested ideology. The city’s next mayor could either restore confidence or accelerate its decline.”

The poll surveyed 500 likely voters from October 22 to 24 across all five boroughs. While the margin of error was not disclosed, political experts note that the data reflects a significant polarization among residents about the city’s future.

A Progressive on the Rise

Zohran Mamdani has quickly become one of the most talked-about figures in New York politics. Elected to the State Assembly in 2020, he rose to prominence through activism around housing, immigrant rights, and social equity. The son of Ugandan-Indian immigrants, he represents a younger, more diverse generation of city leadership.

If elected, Mamdani would become New York’s first openly socialist mayor in modern history — a milestone both celebrated and feared.

His campaign proposals include a citywide public bank to fund infrastructure, fare-free subway rides, and rent caps on all residential properties. Supporters view these ideas as moral imperatives in an increasingly unaffordable city. Critics warn that such measures could trigger another exodus of middle-class families and businesses.

“The danger isn’t the intent — it’s the math,” said Marc Delgado, an economist at Columbia University. “If revenue falls while spending rises, the city could face a fiscal cliff similar to the crises of the 1970s.”

Fear, Hope, and Political Crosscurrents

The phrase “a threat to the city’s future” has emerged as a defining line of the campaign. For some, it reflects genuine economic concern; for others, it reveals discomfort with political change.

“I’ve watched this city survive crime waves, blackouts, and financial collapse,” said Ellen Montgomery, a Brooklyn small business owner. “But higher taxes and more regulation could be the last straw for me.”

Mamdani’s supporters argue that these fears are overblown. “Every great New York reformer was called a radical before history proved them right,” said activist José Peña. “People once said LaGuardia would ruin the city. Instead, he rebuilt it.”

Cuomo and Sliwa Struggle to Gain Ground

Despite rising controversy, Mamdani remains the frontrunner. Victory Insights described his path to City Hall as “highly probable,” with Cuomo and Sliwa far behind.

Cuomo, attempting a comeback after his 2021 resignation, continues to face public distrust. Sliwa, known for his Guardian Angels organization and tough-on-crime stance, appeals mainly to conservative enclaves.

Both have warned that Mamdani’s policies could accelerate urban flight. “If you think taxes are bad now,” Sliwa said at a recent debate, “just wait — this city will empty out faster than it did during lockdown.”

National Eyes on New York

Even national figures are watching closely. According to reports from The Wall Street Journal, former President Donald Trump’s advisers have been monitoring the race as part of a broader analysis of urban political trends. One source described Mamdani’s rise as “a signal of how far left city politics have drifted.”

“They see it as both an opportunity and a warning,” said political analyst Dana Curtis. “If Mamdani wins, it will embolden progressives nationwide but also energize conservatives who want to push back.”

A Turning Point for the City

Early voting begins this weekend, with Election Day set for November 4. Mamdani’s campaign has focused heavily on grassroots organizing in Queens and Brooklyn, targeting immigrant and working-class voters through door-to-door canvassing and digital outreach.

At a recent rally, Mamdani addressed critics directly: “They say my ideas will drive people away,” he said. “But inequality and corruption are what’s driving them out now. I’m fighting to make this city livable again — for everyone.”

As the election nears, New York faces a familiar but urgent question: will it cling to its cautious centrism or embrace a bold experiment in progressive governance?

The answer may not only determine who stays or leaves — but what kind of city New York becomes next.