Californians Push Back as Newsom Seeks to Reclaim Redistricting Power from Independent Commission

A new statewide poll reveals that most California voters want to preserve the state’s independent redistricting commission—even as Governor Gavin Newsom moves forward with a controversial proposal to hand that authority back to the Democratic-controlled legislature.

Newsom’s plan, aimed at countering Republican redistricting strategies in states like Texas, would temporarily suspend the commission’s role and allow the state legislature to redraw congressional districts for the 2026, 2028, and 2030 election cycles. The move comes as part of a broader Democratic effort to rebalance congressional representation nationwide.

But the latest data suggest Newsom’s plan may face strong headwinds from his own constituents.

A joint poll conducted by POLITICO, the Citrin Center, and the Possibility Lab found that 64% of registered voters in California prefer to maintain the current system, which uses an independent commission to draw congressional boundaries. Only 36% support transferring that power back to lawmakers in Sacramento.

Broad Bipartisan Support for Independence

Support for keeping the commission intact crosses party lines. According to the survey, 66% of Republicans, 61% of Democrats, and 72% of independents favor the independent model. Among independents, only 28% favor legislative control.

The polling also extended to state political insiders—subscribers to POLITICO Pro described as policy influencers deeply familiar with California’s political processes. Their responses largely mirrored public sentiment, though partisan divides were more apparent. Among these influencers, 91% of Republicans supported the commission, while 51% of Democrats favored shifting control to the legislature.

Jack Citrin, a UC Berkeley political scientist and a partner on the poll, acknowledged some surprise at the Democratic split, given the national push to use redistricting as a political counterweight.

“That surprised me a little bit, given that this is being pushed so heavily by Newsom and by the Democratic Party nationally that we have to combat Texas,” Citrin told POLITICO.

Newsom’s Calculated Timing

The governor is expected to formally unveil his redistricting initiative on Thursday, though his administration has reportedly held off pending developments in Texas. There, Republican lawmakers are still attempting to bring Democratic legislators back to the state to hold votes on a redistricting bill that could net the GOP five additional U.S. House seats.

In public remarks, Newsom has framed his plan as a necessary response to what he sees as a Republican effort to rig congressional maps in their favor. At a recent news conference, he declared: “I think the voters will approve it. I think the voters understand what’s at stake. We live in the most un-Trump state in America.”

Newsom’s internal polling has shown slightly more favorable numbers for his proposal, especially when it’s presented as a partisan effort to stop Trump-aligned strategies. However, the broader survey results may complicate that narrative. Voters have twice approved the use of an independent commission via ballot initiative, and skepticism toward legislative control appears to remain high.

“There’s a lot of mistrust and cynicism about politicians and the Legislature,” Citrin said. “That’s reflected here as well.”

Temporary Commission Suspension

Newsom’s proposal doesn’t seek to dismantle the redistricting commission entirely. Instead, he wants to place its work on hold for three election cycles. A constitutional amendment, if passed by voters in a special election, would allow the legislature to enact new maps that benefit Democratic candidates.

The maps are expected to be released later this week, setting the stage for intense political battles over congressional boundaries as both parties vie for control of the House in future elections.

Texas Standoff Adds to the Drama

Meanwhile, redistricting efforts in Texas have sparked legal and political turmoil of their own. In an effort to block the passage of a Republican-backed redistricting bill, dozens of Texas House Democrats fled the state earlier this year, temporarily denying the legislature a quorum.

Some of those lawmakers traveled to Illinois, prompting Texas officials to seek their return through civil arrest warrants. However, those efforts were recently blocked.

On Wednesday, Judge Scott Larson of the Eighth Circuit Court in Illinois rejected a request from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and House Speaker Dade Phelan to enforce the warrants. Larson ruled that his court lacked the jurisdiction to act on the matter and stated the plaintiffs had failed to present sufficient legal grounds.

“The court does not find that it has subject matter jurisdiction,” Larson wrote in his opinion. “As such, it cannot compel Illinois law enforcement to act on civil warrants issued by another state.”

The judge emphasized that even if his court could weigh in, it would not have the authority to force lawmakers to return to Texas or rule on the political dispute at hand.

What Comes Next

With redistricting battles intensifying on both coasts, California and Texas have become symbolic battlegrounds in the national struggle over congressional representation.

Newsom’s next steps will be closely watched—not only by Californians wary of legislative overreach, but also by Democrats across the country eager to see whether California’s approach can blunt Republican gains elsewhere.

For now, the numbers suggest the road ahead won’t be easy.

“If this is the starting point, then they will have a struggle,” Citrin concluded.