Under the Surface: The Ceasefire Everyone Fears Could Collapse
U.S. Vice President JD Vance arrived in Israel this week as part of the Trump administration’s ongoing push to stabilize the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. His visit marks a significant moment in Washington’s effort to keep the truce alive while laying the groundwork for broader political negotiations aimed at ending the conflict permanently.
According to reporting from the BBC, Vance is expected to urge Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to begin discussions on long-term issues that go beyond the temporary halt in fighting. His mission is part of a larger diplomatic initiative designed to transition the 12-day-old ceasefire into a durable pathway toward peace.
Two senior U.S. envoys who helped secure the truce—Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner—also met with Netanyahu on Monday. Their presence signals how seriously the administration views the current agreement and its potential to reshape the political landscape in Gaza. However, their arrival coincided with a surge in violence on Sunday that threatened to unravel the arrangement.
According to Israeli officials, a Hamas attack in southern Gaza killed two Israeli soldiers. In response, Israel launched airstrikes across the territory. Hospitals in Gaza reported that dozens of Palestinians were killed in the raids, raising fears that the ceasefire could collapse. Despite the flare-up, President Donald Trump insisted on Monday that the deal remained intact, though he delivered a stark warning to Hamas: any further breach could result in the group being “eradicated.”
The ceasefire plan negotiated by U.S. officials outlines a multi-stage roadmap. The next phase envisions forming an interim Palestinian government, deploying an international stabilization force, withdrawing Israeli troops from key areas, and initiating the disarmament of Hamas. U.S. diplomats, including Vance, Witkoff, and Kushner, are now working to prevent any escalation that might derail these plans before they gain momentum.
Yet uncertainty persists. The New York Times reported that American officials are privately worried that Netanyahu may abandon the agreement and return to a full-scale offensive. The concern stems from political pressures within Israel, where debates continue over how to balance security, hostages, and long-term strategy.
Speaking before the Israeli parliament on Monday, Netanyahu said he intended to discuss both “security challenges” and “political opportunities” with Vance. He defended Israel’s response to Sunday’s attack, noting that Israeli forces had dropped 153 tons of munitions in retaliation for what he called a “blatant” ceasefire violation by Hamas.
“One of our hands holds a weapon,” Netanyahu said, “and the other is extended for peace.” He added, “You make peace with the strong, not the weak—and today Israel is stronger than ever.”
Israeli military officials said the initial attack involved an anti-tank missile fired by Hamas, which killed two soldiers. Israel then carried out strikes across Gaza that, according to local hospitals, left at least 45 Palestinians dead. After the wave of bombings, Israel stated it was restoring its enforcement of the ceasefire, while Hamas publicly reaffirmed its commitment to the agreement.
Reports emerging from Gaza on Monday suggested that violence continued in isolated areas. Four Palestinians were reportedly killed east of Gaza City by Israeli fire. The Israeli military said its troops opened fire on individuals it described as “terrorists” who crossed the ceasefire line in the Shejaiya area.
Later that day, President Trump told reporters at the White House that Hamas had pledged to uphold the truce. “We made a deal with Hamas that they’re going to be very good,” Trump said. “They’re going to behave.” He then cautioned that if Hamas violated the agreement again, “they’ll be eradicated—and they know that.”
In Cairo, Hamas negotiator Khalil al-Hayya said his group remained committed to honoring the agreement “until the end,” telling Egypt’s Al-Qahera News TV that assurances from U.S. mediators convinced Hamas that “the war in Gaza is over.” He also stated that Hamas was working to return the remains of deceased hostages despite the difficulty of retrieving bodies trapped under rubble.
Overnight, Israeli officials confirmed that Hamas had transferred another hostage’s remains to the Red Cross. The individual was identified as 41-year-old Tal Haimi, who was killed during the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack on southern Israel. Thirteen of the 28 bodies held in Gaza when the ceasefire began have now been returned. Last week, 20 living Israeli hostages were released in exchange for nearly 2,000 Palestinian detainees held in Israeli prisons.
Israel’s campaign in Gaza began after the October 7 attack, during which Hamas-led militants killed about 1,200 people and took 251 hostages. Since then, Israeli military operations have resulted in at least 68,216 Palestinian deaths, according to Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry.
The coming days will determine whether the ceasefire can survive its early challenges—or whether renewed clashes will plunge the region back into conflict.