Storm Without a Name — Until Now
Tropical Storm Melissa Intensifies as Caribbean Braces for Impact
A brewing system in the Caribbean is gaining attention from meteorologists and emergency officials alike. Tropical Storm Melissa, now strengthening over warm waters, has the potential to become a hurricane within the next two days. As forecasts sharpen, island nations are taking precautions and urging residents to prepare for heavy rains, strong winds, and dangerous surf conditions.
Storm Position and Path
As of 2 a.m. EDT, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) placed Tropical Storm Melissa at latitude 14.2° North and longitude 74.0° West, roughly 325 miles south-southwest of Port-au-Prince, Haiti. The storm is advancing westward at 12 miles per hour, packing sustained winds of 50 mph and a central pressure of 1003 millibars.
Forecasters expect Melissa to slow down before veering northwest and then north by late this week. If the current trajectory holds, the storm could pass near Jamaica and southwestern Haiti between Thursday and Friday, possibly reaching hurricane strength before making its closest approach.
Meteorologists are closely monitoring the storm’s development, as the surrounding environment—marked by warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear—appears favorable for intensification.
Rainfall and Wind Threats
The NHC warns that Melissa could produce torrential rainfall across several Caribbean territories, with the heaviest amounts likely in southern Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Current projections estimate:
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5 to 10 inches of rain in southern Haiti and the southern Dominican Republic, with isolated peaks near 12 inches in mountainous areas.
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4 to 8 inches across eastern Jamaica, where flash floods and mudslides may occur.
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2 to 4 inches for northern Haiti and northern Dominican Republic.
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1 to 3 inches in western Jamaica, Puerto Rico, and Aruba.
Such rainfall levels could lead to flash flooding, swollen rivers, and landslides, particularly in regions with steep terrain or poor drainage.
Tropical-storm-force winds already extend up to 140 miles from Melissa’s center, producing rough seas and hazardous marine conditions across the northern Caribbean. Boaters and coastal residents are urged to secure property and avoid travel on open water.
Current Watches and Warnings
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Hurricane Watch: in effect for southwestern Haiti, from the Dominican Republic border to Port-au-Prince, signaling possible hurricane conditions within 48 hours.
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Tropical Storm Watch: issued for Jamaica, as the island could begin experiencing tropical storm–force winds soon.
While Cuba and the Dominican Republic remain outside the official warning area, both lie within the storm’s potential path and should monitor updates closely.
Local governments are preparing emergency shelters and coordinating with regional disaster agencies to ensure rapid response if conditions worsen.
Potential U.S. Impacts
For now, direct impacts on the U.S. mainland are not expected. However, rough surf, rip currents, and higher-than-normal tides could affect the Florida coast and the Southeast U.S. shoreline early next week.
If Melissa delays its predicted northward turn, Florida, Cuba, or the Bahamas could face heavier rain and stronger winds by late weekend. The Atlantic hurricane season, which officially runs through November 30, still poses risks even as the year nears its end.
Meteorologists note that late-season hurricanes, though rare, can still be powerful. Past storms like Hurricane Nicole (November 2022) and Hurricane Zeta (October 2020) demonstrated that tropical systems can develop rapidly and cause significant damage well into autumn.
Lessons From the Past
Forecasters often draw comparisons to previous systems to illustrate potential risks. Hurricane Erin (August 2025), though it remained offshore, caused significant coastal disruptions along the U.S. East Coast:
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Offshore winds reached 25–30 knots (29–35 mph) with gusts up to 40 knots (46 mph).
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Waves soared to 12–18 feet off Virginia, North Carolina, and Maryland.
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Tide levels in Chesapeake Bay rose 2.5 feet above normal, leading to coastal flooding.
While Erin brought minimal rainfall, its wide wind field generated powerful surf and erosion. Thanks to swift responses from NOAA and the National Weather Service, warnings about rip currents and port restrictions prevented greater damage.
These examples serve as a reminder that even storms that stay offshore can have far-reaching consequences.
Preparing for Melissa
Officials across the Caribbean emphasize that preparation is key. Residents should secure outdoor belongings, clear drainage systems, and stock emergency supplies, including water, food, batteries, and medications.
Those in flood-prone areas should identify nearby shelters and remain alert for evacuation orders. Travelers are advised to monitor airline and cruise updates, as flight cancellations or port closures are likely if conditions deteriorate.
The Bottom Line
Tropical Storm Melissa is on a strengthening trend and could become a hurricane within 48 hours. With heavy rainfall, strong winds, and dangerous surf expected, southern Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Jamaica face the greatest threat.
Even regions outside the direct path—such as Puerto Rico, Cuba, and parts of the U.S. East Coast—should remain cautious as the system moves northward.
As one forecaster put it:
“Every storm has its surprises. The key is to stay informed, stay calm, and be ready before it’s too late.”