A significant potential showdown is looming in Alaska’s political landscape. Governor Mike Dunleavy—a well‑known ally of former President Donald Trump—is reportedly preparing to launch a campaign for the U.S. Senate in 2028, aiming to challenge the long‑incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski. While no formal announcement has yet been made, sources indicate that Dunleavy has quietly begun laying the groundwork for what could become one of the most closely watched Republican primaries in the country.

According to insiders, Dunleavy has met with close advisers and national conservative allies to explore the timing and strategy of a run. One senior aide familiar with the governor’s thinking noted, “He is not leaving his post early. He plans to finish his term and then pivot to the Senate race.” This approach suggests that Dunleavy intends to leverage his current role as governor to bolster his credentials and fundraising base before making his move.

Dunleavy, first elected governor in 2018 and reelected in 2022, has maintained a steady profile as a conservative executive aligned with Trump’s agenda. His early endorsement of Trump in 2016—only the second sitting governor to do so at the time—cemented his status within the Trump‑aligned wing of the party. According to sources, Trump has talked with Dunleavy about his future and believes the governor would be a strong candidate for the Senate.

If Dunleavy enters the race, his likely opponent would be Senator Lisa Murkowski, who has represented Alaska since her appointment in 2002 and subsequent elections. Murkowski has built a reputation as a moderate Republican, often breaking with her party on hot‑button issues such as abortion, energy policy, and judicial nominations. Her vote to convict Trump during his second impeachment trial in 2021 remains a touchstone in her political narrative—and one that still fuels opposition from the party’s conservative wing.

In the 2022 GOP primary, Trump backed Kelly Tshibaka, a challenger to Murkowski, but Murkowski narrowly prevailed via Alaska’s ranked‑choice system. Political observers now say that Dunleavy—armed with executive experience, statewide name recognition, and alignment with Trump’s base—would pose a far more formidable threat than Tshibaka did.

“One key difference is Dunleavy isn’t a fringe candidate; he’s the sitting governor,” said one Alaska political analyst. “He has established a statewide presence, fundraising capacity, and a voter base that overlaps heavily with Trump‑supporting conservatives.”

Despite the speculation, Dunleavy has publicly offered only lighthearted deflections when asked about a Senate run. “I’m still shoveling my driveway,” he joked in a recent media appearance, adding, “Let’s see how the winter goes.” Behind the scenes, however, major donor discussions, early staffing considerations, and policy themes tied to energy independence and Alaska’s resource sovereignty are reportedly already in motion.

Those who know Dunleavy describe him as a results‑focused leader who stays out of the national spotlight. One former aide observed: “He isn’t attracted to political theater. He doesn’t chase headlines—he focuses on Alaska’s problems.” That persona, supporters say, has earned him respect among Alaskans seeking practical governance rather than showmanship.

Nevertheless, critics argue that his low‑key style makes him less visible on the national stage. But in Alaska’s independent‑minded electorate, that may be an asset rather than a liability. “Alaskans don’t like outsiders telling them what to do—whether those outsiders live in Washington or advertise in D.C.,” said one political historian specializing in the region.

The timing of Dunleavy’s approach appears informed by lessons from his state’s recent political history, including the trajectory of former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin. Palin resigned mid‑term in pursuit of higher office and later struggled to regain footing—something Dunleavy seems keen to avoid. His advisers suggest he plans to complete his full term, avoid the early‑exit risk, and only then set his eyes on the Senate.

Energy and resource policy will likely anchor his platform. Dunleavy has already prioritized Alaska’s oil and gas industries, resisted federal regulatory pressure, and pushed state spending cuts. Sources say his prospective campaign would emphasize protecting Alaska’s economic sovereignty, strengthening the state’s strategic role in energy and defense, and maintaining strong ties with Trump‑aligned conservatives.

A Senate run would also magnify the existing partisan and ideological fault lines within the Alaska GOP. Murkowski represents the moderate, institutional wing of the party; Dunleavy would carry the torch for populist conservatives aligned with Trump’s insurgent movement. One analyst said, “This won’t just be a Senate race—it may become the defining contest of where the Republican Party in Alaska is headed.”

Alaskans will be watching closely, aware of historical trends that governors who seek federal office often face long odds in this state’s unique political climate. The last governor to re‑win his seat domestically was in 1978; many who tried to transition have failed. Few succeed in buying the leap from statewide executive to national legislator.

And yet, if Dunleavy runs, the early signals suggest strong preparatory movement—donor strategy, messaging testing, and alliances with national conservative groups. His rival, Murkowski, has not publicly addressed the rumors and continues her Senate duties quietly.

As the 2028 race comes into view, the question isn’t simply “Will Dunleavy run?” but “What will his candidacy mean for the future of the Republican Party in Alaska?” For now, the governor stays focused on his current term—but in the corridors of power, the stakes are already being calculated.

In short: this potential matchup is not only a battle for a Senate seat. It’s a statement about leadership, ideology, and where Alaska’s dominant party may be headed.