The Last Stronghold: Will Alaska’s Senate Race Unravel the GOP’s Future?
Alaska’s 2028 Senate Showdown: Dunleavy vs. Murkowski Could Redefine GOP Identity
The 2028 U.S. Senate race in Alaska is already drawing national attention—and for good reason. Governor Mike Dunleavy, a conservative Republican with strong ties to former President Donald Trump, is reportedly preparing to challenge incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski in what could become one of the most defining political battles of the next election cycle.
This potential matchup sets the stage for a high-stakes clash not only between two prominent Alaskan figures, but also between two contrasting visions of the Republican Party—one rooted in traditional pragmatism and the other driven by populist loyalty to Trump.
Murkowski: The Independent Voice of Alaska
Senator Lisa Murkowski has served in the U.S. Senate since 2002, when she was appointed by her father, then-Governor Frank Murkowski. While that appointment drew criticism, Murkowski has since built a reputation as a centrist with a fiercely independent streak.
Over the years, Murkowski has survived several political near-death experiences, most notably in 2010 when she lost the Republican primary to Tea Party-backed Joe Miller. Undeterred, she launched a historic write-in campaign and won the general election—an extraordinary feat in American politics.
Murkowski has often broken ranks with her party, voting against repealing the Affordable Care Act, hesitating on Trump’s Supreme Court nominees, and famously voting to convict Trump during his second impeachment trial. These stances have earned her bipartisan respect but alienated much of the conservative base.
Despite that, she managed to hold onto her seat in 2022 thanks in part to Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system, which requires candidates to appeal to a broader electorate—including independents and moderate Democrats.
Dunleavy: A Trump-Aligned Challenger with Momentum
Governor Mike Dunleavy, a former educator and state legislator, won the governorship in 2018 by championing Alaska’s Permanent Fund Dividend and pushing for reduced government spending. Throughout his tenure, he has remained firmly aligned with Trump, earning endorsements and appearing alongside the former president during key political moments.
Sources close to Dunleavy say that Trump has personally encouraged him to run against Murkowski, viewing the governor as a loyal ally who could help reshape the Senate in favor of pro-Trump conservatives.
Dunleavy’s potential candidacy is viewed as a direct challenge to Murkowski’s moderate approach, especially on issues where she has distanced herself from the Trump-era Republican agenda.
Trump’s Shadow Over Alaska’s Senate Race
The 2028 race could become another referendum on Trump’s influence over the GOP. Murkowski’s impeachment vote and refusal to endorse Trump have put her at odds with the party’s base. In contrast, Dunleavy’s loyalty to Trump could help him galvanize support from conservatives eager for change.
But Alaska’s ranked-choice voting complicates the dynamic. While Trump’s endorsement might carry weight in a closed primary, winning a general election in Alaska now requires broader support. Murkowski proved in 2022 that building coalitions across party lines can still secure victory—even when facing opposition from a former president.
Why Dunleavy Might Run
Insiders suggest Dunleavy is seriously considering a Senate bid but plans to serve out his full term as governor, avoiding the kind of early resignation that damaged Sarah Palin’s reputation. Instead, he’s expected to position himself as a practical leader with a record of getting things done—particularly on energy, public safety, and economic development.
Running for Senate would allow Dunleavy to bring Alaska’s resource-based priorities to the national stage, particularly in debates over federal land use, Indigenous rights, and oil production.
What’s at Stake for Alaska—and the GOP
A Dunleavy-Murkowski contest could be a defining moment for both the state and the Republican Party. Murkowski represents a more traditional, institutionally grounded conservatism, while Dunleavy offers a vision aligned with Trump’s populist movement.
If Murkowski holds her seat, it will send a signal that moderation and bipartisan cooperation can still win in states with diverse political landscapes. If Dunleavy wins, it will confirm that Trump’s influence remains strong—especially in shaping who gets to represent the GOP in Washington.
The outcome may also affect how national Republicans approach future races, particularly in states with nontraditional voting systems like Alaska’s.
A Race to Watch
Though neither candidate has officially declared, the groundwork for a major political showdown is already being laid. With Trump looming in the background and Alaska’s unique electoral system in play, this race could serve as a bellwether for the Republican Party’s future direction.
As the political calendar moves closer to 2028, all eyes will be on Alaska to see whether independence or loyalty wins the day.