Alaska Showdown Looms: Governor Dunleavy Poised to Challenge Senator Murkowski in 2028

A major political clash is brewing in Alaska as Governor Mike Dunleavy is preparing for a potential run for the U.S. Senate in 2028, setting the stage for a high-stakes race against incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski. According to several individuals close to the governor, discussions about a campaign have intensified in recent weeks, though an official announcement has yet to be made.

If he moves forward, Dunleavy would be taking on one of the most established political figures in the state. Murkowski, known for her centrist positions and independence from party lines, has served in the Senate since 2002. Her willingness to break with fellow Republicans — particularly her strained relationship with former President Donald Trump — has drawn criticism from conservative voters but earned her praise from moderates and some Democrats.

Dunleavy, on the other hand, represents a different political mold. Since first endorsing Trump in 2016, he has remained one of the former president’s most loyal allies. Those familiar with the governor’s thinking say that Trump has personally encouraged him to run and views him as a strong candidate to unseat Murkowski.

“He has no intention of leaving office early,” said one source who previously worked alongside Dunleavy in Juneau. “He’s focused on finishing his term as governor. But after that, all signs point toward a Senate run.”

This approach contrasts with past political moves in Alaska. Former Governor Sarah Palin resigned in 2009 before the end of her term in pursuit of national opportunities — a decision that many analysts believe harmed her political future. Dunleavy, sources say, is determined not to repeat that misstep.

Although not one to seek media attention, Dunleavy has quietly built a record of policy achievements in Alaska that have earned him respect even among critics. “He’s not flashy. He doesn’t care for the D.C. spotlight or political theater,” one insider said. “He’s more interested in delivering results than attending fundraisers or photo ops.”

Still, the governor has acknowledged — even jokingly — that being in Washington may be necessary to move Alaska’s agenda forward. While he reportedly prefers Alaska’s rugged wilderness to what he’s called the “concrete jungle” of the nation’s capital, he is increasingly seen as a serious contender for national office.

His close ties to Trump further cement his appeal among conservatives. Dunleavy was one of the first Republican governors to endorse Trump’s candidacy and has frequently traveled to the White House during Trump’s terms. Most recently, he was present at Trump’s August 15 meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage — a move interpreted by some as a sign of his growing national relevance.

Though Alaska has a reputation for being unpredictable in its electoral outcomes, Dunleavy’s political base is seen as strong. Unlike past challengers to Murkowski, he enjoys support that reaches beyond the conservative core. He has built strong relationships in rural areas and among Native Alaskan communities, particularly on issues like education, infrastructure, and energy development.

“He’s not just another Republican trying to run to the right of Murkowski,” said a longtime Alaskan political strategist. “He’s built real coalitions — including with communities that are often overlooked by national candidates.”

Murkowski, for her part, has shown an extraordinary ability to survive politically. After losing the 2010 Republican primary to Tea Party-backed Joe Miller, she launched a write-in campaign — and won. That victory cemented her status as a unique force in Alaskan and national politics. Still, analysts suggest that Dunleavy could pose her most significant challenge yet.

“Conservatives have been waiting for a candidate with both name recognition and a real base of support to take her on,” one analyst said. “Dunleavy may be that candidate.”

The state’s ranked-choice voting system, introduced in recent elections, adds another layer of complexity. While some argue that it has helped moderate candidates like Murkowski, others believe it could benefit someone like Dunleavy, who has appeal across different voter groups.

Supporters within Alaska and from national conservative circles have been encouraging Dunleavy to enter the race. Many see it as a chance to reshape the state’s political representation and reinforce Trump’s influence in the Senate.

“He’s hearing it from all sides — from Alaskans tired of Murkowski’s moderation to national voices who want a loyal Trump ally in that seat,” said a source close to the governor.

If he announces his candidacy, the 2028 Senate race in Alaska could become one of the most closely watched contests in the country — a face-off between two political heavyweights representing starkly different visions for the Republican Party and the state’s future.